With the season now past its halfway point, things have taken shape at the top of the Premier League. Alex Malone looks at the data that backs up his belief that Liverpool will win the title.
Liverpool, as of writing this, are six points clear of Arsenal and Nottingham Forest with a game in hand on each. Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle are 10, 12 and 12 points adrift, respectively, with each also having played a game more.
None have shown the consistency to make me believe that they are capable of overhauling such a gap.
So what about Forest? While I have the utmost respect for what they have achieved so far this season, I don’t believe they have the squad depth to sustain a challenge. I might end up regretting that statement, but I simply can’t see them overhauling what is, in effect, 10 points on Liverpool when considering goal difference.
That leaves a two-horse race; Liverpool and Arsenal. The bookies agree, with Liverpool 1/5, Arsenal 5/1 and the rest with odds of 25/1 or worse.
Let’s take a look at several key metrics and statistics because I think they paint a clear picture as to why Liverpool are such clear favourites:
Liverpool…
- have the most points: 50 (vs. Arsenal‘s 44)
- have scored the most goals: 50 goals, vs. Arsenal’s 43
- have conceded the fewest goals: 20 vs. Arsenal’s 21
- have a goal difference of +30 compared to Arsenal‘s +22
- have won 15 games vs. Arsenal‘s 12 and have played a game less
- have only one defeat compared to Arsenal‘s two
- have nine clean sheets compared to Arsenal’s seven
- have Mo Salah, the highest goal scorer in the league with 18 goals and who also has the most assists with 13
In every measure, Liverpool have a superior record to Arsenal. I looked for metrics that favour Arsenal in the hope of showing balance, but the fact is there aren’t any.
Another insightful measure is ‘average points won per game’ for each team, home and away.
Liverpool have averaged 2.3 points per game at home in 10 games. Arsenal have averaged 2.27 in 11 games.
Liverpool have averaged 2.45 points per game away from home. Arsenal have averaged 1.73. Both have played 11 away games.
In both measures Liverpool top the Premier League. Arsenal’s home record is second to Liverpool, but their away record is only fourth. This translates to Liverpool having collected eight more points in 11 away games than Mikel Arteta’s side.
Win percentage and percentage of points won:
• Liverpool have won 15 of 21 games for a win percentage of 71.4%
• Arsenal have won 12 out of 22 games for a win percentage of 54.5%
Of all the points available to both teams so far this season (63 for Liverpool and 66 for Arsenal due to them having played a game more), Liverpool have achieved 79.4% of all points available (50/63); Arsenal have achieved 66.7% (44/66).
Attacking options
Liverpool have five main attackers, Salah, Diaz, Gakpo, Jota and Nunez – who have scored 18, eight, six, five and four league goals respectively for a total of 41. Without Jota’s numbers, as he is currently unavailable, the four fit strikers have scored 36.
Arsenal have six main attackers, Havertz, Trossard, Martinelli, Saka, Jesus and Sterling. They have scored eight, four, six, five, three and zero respectively for a total of 26. Without Saka and Jesus’s numbers, as both are injured, their four fit strikers have scored a mere 18.
Thirty-six goals versus 18 means that Liverpool’s four fit strikers are twice as likely to score than Arsenal’s four fit strikers.
Comparing the teams’ leading scorers: Salah vs. Havertz
Salah is the league’s leading scorer with 18 goals. Havertz is Arsenal‘s leading scorer with eight.
In addition to this, Salah has also missed 14 big chances while Havertz has missed 11. So in total, Salah has scored or missed 32 big chances while Havertz has scored or missed only 19. This translates to Salah being involved in 68% more ‘big chance’ situations than Havertz.
Havertz has an average of 0.86 big chances per game while Salah has 1.52 – almost double. Not only that, but Salah is converting 56% of his big chances while Havertz is converting only 42%.
Throughout his Liverpool career, Salah has scored at a rate of approximately a goal every 1.5 games. Havertz, throughout his career averages a goal about every 2.5 games.
The difference between the two players is stark, and there is no reason to believe this will change in any meaningful way as the season progresses.
Results vs. the other teams in the top 10
Against the current top 10 teams in the league this season, the teams’ respective records are:
Arsenal – P11 W2 D7 L2
Thirteen points from a possible 33 or 1.18 points per game resulting in 43% of the points available.
Liverpool – P10 W5 D4 L1
Nineteen points from a possible 30 or 1.9 points per game resulting in 63% of the points available.
Is there hope for Arsenal?
Yes, because a six-point gap with a game in hand has been clawed back several times before.
Indeed, only last season, Arsenal were five points behind Liverpool with both teams having played 22 games. They ended the season seven points ahead of Liverpool, with a remarkable end of season record in those 16 games of W14 D1 L1.
However, this time, we have a six-point advantage with a game in hand rather than only five points, and this would rise to nine points if we win our game in hand.
Still, the fact is that Arsenal were able to acquire 12 more points than us in the final 16 games of last season and a repeat of that would see them pip us to the title.
A second consideration where Arsenal have the edge is in the remaining away games.
WATCH ALEX’S ANALYSIS HERE:
Arsenal’s remaining eight away games see them play only two of the current top 10: Forest and Liverpool.
Liverpool’s remaining eight away games see us play six of the current top 10: Bournemouth, Man City, Aston Villa, Fulham, Chelsea and Brighton.
While this is clearly in the Gunners’ favour, the home fixtures paint a different picture.
Liverpool’s remaining nine home fixtures see us play only two of the top 10: Newcastle and Arsenal.
Arsenal‘s remaining eight home games see them play five of the top 10: Man City, Chelsea, Fulham, Bournemouth and Newcastle.
So while the Gunners have a clear advantage in away games, that is balanced by Liverpool’s advantage in home games. Vitally, one of Arsenal‘s away games is at Anfield.
An Arsenal remarkable run may still not be enough
With all of that said, even a repeat of Arsenal’s remarkable 16-game run at the end of last season may well not be enough.
For argument’s sake, let’s assume Arsenal repeat those last season’s heroics of W14 D1 L1 of their final 16 games. If they do, they would drop only five points from now until the end of the season. It would give them a points total of 87 (their current 44 plus 43).
IF they were to achieve 87 points, Liverpool would require 38 more points from the remaining 51 on offer – in other words, we could afford to drop 13 points in our final 17 games and still achieve 88 points.
It is worth pointing out that so far this season we have dropped only 13 points in 21 games.
So what does all this mean?
It means that Liverpool’s odds of 1/5 with the bookies are for a multitude of good reasons. Our metrics are far superior, we have a more potent attacking threat and at the moment we are in significantly better shape than Arsenal with respect to injuries.
Of course, the race is far from over as injuries, loss of form, refereeing decisions, nerves, pressure etc. can all yet play a part.
So, can Arsenal overhaul the points gap to win the title? Yes, it’s possible. Is it likely given all of the above metrics being so clearly in Liverpool’s favour? No, it’s not.
Given everything we know and everything we’ve seen from Arne Slot’s Liverpool this season, versus everything we know and have seen from Arteta’s Arsenal, one team is playing the best football in Europe never mind England, while the other is not.
With the right focus from the squad – a focus we have seen for the entire season to date and a continuation of the excellence this squad has shown to date, there is a very, VERY good chance that the Premier League trophy will be heading back to Anfield.
Let’s bring it home lads. YNWA.
You can follow more from Alex on his YouTube channel, YNWA Reds, here.
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