Liverpool fans have got used to needing perfection to win the Premier League title, but this season looks increasingly likely to be very different.
During three separate title races, in 2018/19, 2021/22 and 2023/24, it felt like any dropped points for the Reds were fatal.
Frankly, it was torture on a weekly basis, as we not only supported Liverpool but also prayed for a favour from whoever Man City were playing, invariably to no avail.
The level that the Reds and Pep Guardiola’s side set was arguably the most relentless and impressive in the history of English football.
In the title-winning 2019/20 campaign, Liverpool famously won 27 of their first 28 league games, drawing the other, and even City couldn’t live with them.
For that reason, Reds supporters can’t shrug off the feeling that endless winning runs are needed in this season’s title race, with a points total close to 100 required.
Thankfully, that isn’t the case, so the panic can stop.
A return to normality this season
The aforementioned need for perfection during the peak of Jurgen Klopp and Guardiola’s tussles has clouded everything we know about title races.
Until 2018, such ludicrous levels of consistency were rarely required to go all the way, let alone 97 points to now even win it.
Liverpool lost one league game in the entirety of 2018/19, yet still didn’t clinch glory!
Those seasons have been anomalies in a Man City-dominated era, when in fact the team who end up being champions are often afforded blips along the way.
Man United‘s much-lauded 1998/99 treble-winning side accumulated only 79 points from their 38 games, for example, winning just 22 of them.
Arsenal‘s undefeated ‘Invincibles’ slipped up in 12 of their matches in 2003/04, while Leicester‘s legendary success needed just 81 points to get over the line.
Only once in the 1990s were 90 points breached, with United dropping points in 17 league fixtures in 1996/97, en route to just a 75-point triumph.
Losing a game never required a meltdown, let alone a draw, because supporters knew that rivals would also fall short plenty of times.
Thankfully, it looks as though normality has finally returned to the title race this season.
How many slip-ups can Liverpool afford?
We’re now beyond the halfway point of this Premier League season and Liverpool sit top of the table with 50 points from their 21 matches.
That’s an average of 2.38 points per game, meaning they would finish the campaign with 90 points if they carried on like they are.
That would be enough to win the Premier League title in at least 20 of its seasons since its inception in 1992 – there were also 90-point years in 2003/04 (Arsenal) and 2008/09 (United).
It would be a highly impressive tally by Arne Slot in his first season, but the truth is, there is every chance that fewer points will be enough.
2nd place in the Premier League over the last 10 seasons. pic.twitter.com/oQYu7PD1GJ
— Sam Millne (@sam_millne) January 19, 2025
Arsenal are Liverpool’s closest rivals this season, despite the continued brilliance of Nottingham Forest, with City capitulating by their high standards.
In what should make for pleasant reading for Liverpool fans, the Gunners can now only get a maximum of 92 points this season.
That’s if they win every remaining game, which frankly seems impossible in their current form, without tempting fate.
The same applies to Forest, who will surely reach a point when their level drops, even though Champions League qualification feels entirely possible.
Essentially, Liverpool should not need to match their current standard in these remaining 17 fixtures, affording them an element of wiggle room.
That’s not to suggest that Slot’s men should even consider taking their foot off the accelerator or getting too comfortable, but their rivals’ limitations speak for themselves.
Arsenal and Forest are going at two points per game, meaning both would finish with 76 if they continue at this rate.
It’s impossible to know the exact number that Liverpool need, but at this rate, it would be a shock if they required more than 85 to lift a second Premier League title, if that.
That would mean needing 35 more points from 17 games.
Nine of those matches are at Anfield, with the likes of Ipswich, Wolves, Southampton and Everton to play there.
Granted, only a few iffy results for Liverpool will let Arsenal, or even Forest, back in, but even if that happens, there should be no need for an overreaction.
Had it occurred in those stressful battles with City, fans would have every right to fear the worst, but we cannot treat 2024/25 like those freak years.
Liverpool can be flawed and still win this title, like the vast majority of English champions.
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