While it arrived a week later than expected due to the postponement of the derby, Liverpool recently played out their 19th game of the league season and it is now time to assess.
It means Arne Slot‘s Reds are officially halfway through their campaign, albeit having played Man United twice and Everton not at all.
The Reds sit at the top of the table on 46 points, their best return after 19 games since the club last won the title in 2019/20 when they had banked 55 points at the halfway stage.
• READ: Liverpool on course for 3rd-highest points haul at halfway stage
So it begs the question, what have we learned from the first half of the season?
Liverpool are imperfect but still favourites
After 11 games, I wrote a piece analysing Liverpool’s title chances based on data. At that time, the Reds were on track for a 96-point season, although they were overachieving their xP (Expected Points) tally thanks to a red-hot attacking unit.
Their ‘true’ level then appeared to be around 83 points by season’s end, which is decent, but far above the nearest challengers at the time – demonstrating just how unusual this Premier League season was shaping up.
Now at the halfway mark, Liverpool are tracking for a more reasonable 92 points – but their xP is also up to 86 points, meaning we can now comfortably predict the Reds will land at or near the 90-point mark.
Man City have crumbled, as predicted, while Arsenal have rediscovered their top form – they’re unbeaten in nine league games since the analysis was published. But they’ll now likely need 50 points from the 54 remaining to catch Liverpool at the top – and likely would need to win at Anfield for the first time since 2012.
Slot’s side are regressing, as expected, after a fine start – but they’re still clearly the best team in the league, and clearly have the best chance to win it.
Full-backs are the fulcrum, and the future must be secured
To explain just how fluid the full-back role has been this season, here’s Trent Alexander-Arnold talking about how Arne Slot coaches them in buildup:
“The manager will dissect how they press so we can outnumber the way they press. If they press with three, we’ll have four players around, so that we can play through them. If they press with a two then there’ll be three players, et cetera. It’s just about who those players are and where it works best.”
A high degree of tactical intelligence is required, with the full-backs given specific instructions for each game – and then challenged to make adjustments in-game as opponents react.
Against the ball, they both stay deeper to deny space for wingers on the counter, allowing them to run up and down the pitch less but also giving them greater responsibility in defending 1v1.
As a result, Liverpool’s ability to build play, create artificial transitions and defend fast breaks are all dependent on the full-backs – and it’s in this context that Andy Robertson has drawn criticism.
According to FBref, Robertson’s defensive numbers have barely changed from last season, while the decline in his attacking output is largely due to the new setup.
He did get sent off against Fulham, though he had just sustained a significant knock when he made the mistake, and has made some alarming errors in build up.
But other incidents have been unfairly added to the case against him, such as the identical goals scored by Leicester and Man United when his winger ran across him – goals that are typical for a full-back to concede, not the sign of a player in decline.
He has looked every bit a player whose rotation options are absent, with both Kostas Tsimikas and Joe Gomez suffering injuries forcing him to play game after game.
The importance of the role under Slot means a high level backup option is needed. But the dismissal of links to Antonee Robinson (27) in favour of targets such as Milos Kerkez (21) and Jorrel Hato (18) suggests it’s a long-term successor that Liverpool seek rather than a replacement.
Best team in the league – but it’s a squad game
It’s hard to argue against Liverpool’s starting eleven being the best in the world this season. But it comes from a pool of roughly 14-15 players that have Slot’s trust and his dependence on them has been detrimental at times.
The likes of Virgil Van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch, Luis Diaz and Mohamed Salah have had little opportunity to rest as Slot has been reluctant to trust backups like Jarell Quansah, Wataru Endo and Darwin Nunez.
It’s led to some displays influenced by fatigue, particularly the defeats to Nottingham Forest in the league and Tottenham in the Carabao Cup.
With Federico Chiesa the only signing that Slot has greenlit so far, he has yet to build a squad that he can trust from top to bottom. That might be the difference between one big trophy and a handful of them come season’s end.
Impressive firepower but Salah still main weapon
That Chiesa signing means Liverpool have six senior forwards at their disposal. But the other five massively underperformed their xG last season, meaning there were some decisions for the new boss to make.
Diogo Jota is his clear favourite to lead the line when fit, but in his absence Slot has repurposed Luis Diaz as a centre forward and unleashed Cody Gakpo on the left wing. Both players have subsequently gone up a level from their stints in the opposite positions under the previous coach, and the frontline is currently the most potent in the Premier League.
No team in the competition has scored more than the Reds’ 47.
But there’s still clearly one main man. Salah has a new look, a new role out of possession and a new lease on Liverpool life that has seen him mount a strong case for the Ballon d’Or. He’s scored an absurd 38 percent of his side’s league goals at the halfway mark.
Perhaps that’s why links have emerged to Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – Slot likely wants to build a forward line in his own image that can share the goalscoring burden.
Arne Slot is not an unknown entity now
The final word then should go to the man whose name is all over this piece. Slot was a great unknown before a ball was kicked, a coach plucked from the Eredivise to replace Jurgen Norbert Klopp.
Midway through the season, we’ve learned that the Dutchman is up there with the best of the best.
He’s turned the third-best team of last year’s league to the best, using only a tactics board and a keen eye for repurposing the talent at his disposal.
As well as tinkering with the frontline, every member of his first-choice midfield is playing a different role than they did last year.
The biggest issues from last season – finishing chances, preventing goals and controlling games – have all been addressed and improved upon. His ability to tweak positions, protect leads or send on a fourth attacker to find a goal have been instrumental in changing games and snatching points.
Now to see how he goes about navigating the second half of 2024/25.
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