Are Liverpool favourites to win the title? Here, Harry McMullen takes a look at the underlying numbers following a bright start to life under Arne Slot.
They say the table doesn’t lie, and right now it says Liverpool are the best team in the league.
Five points clear after 11 games, Liverpool are on pace for 96 points, a total that would surely secure the title. But can they keep this up for the whole season? Do they even need to?
How good are we actually?
Liverpool are overperforming their Expected Points (xPoints) – the likelihood of a team winning a match based on the quality and quantity of chances created – by about 3.95.
However, they still top the xPoints table, slightly ahead of, er, Fulham. This suggests Liverpool’s position is deserved, even if they weren’t running a little hot.
In the past six years, the team on top after 11 games has become champions three times. Each of the other three leaders were overachieving their true level much more and unsurprisingly fell off:
Liverpool’s 21 goals scored is on the lower end for a champion team, as you can see in the table below:
Defensively, Arne Slot‘s Reds have been excellent. Only two of the last six champions had the league’s best defence at this stage.
However, three of the four teams that fell short all had a worse xGA than Liverpool. This is a title-winning defence:
Can Liverpool sustain this level of overperformance? Maybe.
The title-winning Reds of 2019/20 were a massive eight points above xP after 11 games, and they kept that pace right to the end of the campaign.
How much better do we have to be than the challengers?
Cheerfully, if Liverpool stop overperforming and regress down to their underlying numbers, they’ll still reach about 83 points.
Usually, Arsenal and Man City could beat that tally. But both teams have failed to demonstrate the performance level needed to do so, given the ground they now have to make up.
The nine-point gap means Arsenal are probably out of the race already, even if they recapture their best form, while the five-point buffer for Man City make them second favourites.
Both teams have also suffered with injuries – about time! – while Liverpool have coped well without the likes of Alisson, Harvey Elliott and Diogo Jota already so far.
Though, in Premier League history, only twice have a team won the title with fewer than 80 points – in 1996/97 and 1998/99 – while the average points won by the champions is 87.8.
So, WILL we win the title?
Clearly, if Liverpool maintain their current level of performance, they’ll be champions. If they regress to their expected numbers, they’ve got a very good chance.
The critical question is: will Liverpool drop below their expected level?
Offensively, Mohamed Salah has started incredibly once again, with 10 goals and 10 assists already. However, we’ve become accustomed to seeing him tail off in the back half of the season.
This includes last year when the Reds finished second bottom of the league for goals vs. goals conceded – they netted 80 times from an xG of 87.8.
However, under Slot, Liverpool have begun creating and scoring at a more controlled rate – taking fewer shots per game but with a higher xG per shot.
As a result, there’s a healthy spread of goals across the squad below Salah, and the rate of scoring is more or less consistent with xG so far.
A bigger concern is the lack of goals from set pieces, scoring just two in the league so far. The same players have been excellent in that regard in years gone by, though – improving on that front could provide a strong alternative route to goal.
Defensively, Liverpool are clearly overperforming, conceding six goals from an xGA of 10.2. Slot’s more patient approach in possession has improved the team’s rest defence, reducing the frequency of counterattacks.
However, as we saw in the game against Chelsea, the pressing structure can be manipulated fairly easily. Liverpool’s last line of defence has masked this, but expecting the press to be bailed out all season is surely wishful thinking.
Slot’s half-time changes usually improve the team out of possession, but these continuous slow starts will eventually be punished.
What does this all mean?
Right now, Liverpool are posting an xG goal difference of about +0.98 per game. In other words, they’re expected to score at least one more goal than their opponent every game.
That’s already tight – Liverpool had a better xG against Nottingham Forest and still lost.
Any blip that becomes something much more sustained and the Reds’ slim advantage can quickly be eroded.
However, it’s worth noting that Man City won the league in 2020/21 with an xG difference of +1.0 per game. That season was also more open, with lower points totals required for the title.
That means that as long as Liverpool don’t get any worse than their current performance level, that should be good enough.
We should enjoy the tag of title favourites. All metrics indicate that Slot’s side belong at the top, and that’s where they are.
A degree of regression should be expected, though Slot could offset this by improving attacking set-pieces and refining the press. As long as the Reds keep at least level with expectations, we can keep dreaming of that long-awaited packed Anfield celebration.
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