Liverpool know all too well how long-term injuries to key personnel can derail a season, and with Man City now at a crossroads, the Reds need to be prepared.
Matchday five and a routine set-piece morphs into a nightmare for the reigning champions. Rodri, Man City‘s indispensable midfield anchor, drops to the turf clutching his knee.
The final whistle brings a 2-2 draw, but the real story was already written: the injury to Rodri – and what it could mean for City’s season.
Liverpool fans have seen this script before. In 2020, Virgil van Dijk suffered a season-ending injury at the exact same point, and the title defence crumbled.
Could City now face a similar fate? And, more importantly for us, are Liverpool ready to take advantage if so?
Lessons from Van Dijk’s injury
In his first full season at Anfield, Van Dijk played every minute of every league match. He did the same in the following campaign, enshrining his status as the Reds’ defensive colossus.
With that level of consistency, the Dutchman seemed indestructible, so the ACL tear came as a hammer blow.
In spite of this, Liverpool were still top of the Premier League at Christmas – over two months later. The real collapse came after further injuries hit the already thin defence.
Joe Gomez and Joel Matip, whose roles had been diminished by Van Dijk’s relentless availability, were thrust into playing more minutes than their bodies could handle.
Both succumbed to long-term injuries and what was initially a wobble in Liverpool’s title defence turned into a full-on crisis.
Rodri’s role in City’s success
Rodri has been an almost unmovable object in City’s system since arriving in 2018, missing just five games to injury until now.
He has been Pep Guardiola’s tactical cornerstone, playing an extraordinary number of minutes – 4,327 last season alone, 256 more than Van Dijk managed in 2023/24 and eight full games more than Liverpool’s second most-used, Luis Diaz.
In Rodri’s absence, City faltered, losing all three Premier League games he missed.
Now, City are forced to rely on backups who simply haven’t played as many minutes.
Mateo Kovacic, subbed on for Rodri last weekend, had several injury issues at Chelsea. Upon moving to City last year he played just 1,548 minutes – scarcely a quarter of the Spaniard’s load.
City’s other options are Matheus Nunes, who started just seven league games last season, and 33-year-old Ilkay Gundogan, who is already a regular starter.
Guardiola is known for his tactical flexibility, but moving players out of their natural positions can come with its own risks. He could turn to defenders Rico Lewis or John Stones, but Reds know all too well what happens when you start shifting players around.
During their injury crisis, Jurgen Klopp used midfielders Fabinho and Jordan Henderson in defence. But moving positions means players carry out different actions, placing unfamiliar strains on different parts of the body.
This increases the likelihood of injury and that’s exactly what happened to the Liverpool pair.
City can likely cope without Rodri in the short term, but as the games pile up and the minutes start adding up, the strain on the squad will increase.
Losing such a key player might not be noticeable right away, but over the course of a full season it could prove fatal.
What this means for Liverpool
Back in 2020, City were struggling in eighth place while Liverpool were top at Christmas. However, the subsequent collapse opened the door for Guardiola’s side and they took full advantage.
Could the roles be reversed this season?
Liverpool’s start to the season has been solid, with four wins from five in the league and four clean sheets. Arne Slot has navigated the tricky transition from Klopp’s era admirably, and signs of a cohesive team are emerging.
Alisson remains a rock between the sticks, while Van Dijk is marshalling the defence once again.
Mohamed Salah continues his relentless pursuit of records. Second-season midfielders Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai are beginning to gel. Luis Diaz has impressively upped his end product.
While Arsenal have presented themselves as serious contenders for the title, their track record under Mikel Arteta shows a team that often falters when the pressure is highest.
They have yet to reach 90 points in the league, and they’ve tended to settle for draws in big moments. Should they really inspire the same level of fear as a full-strength City?
Could January be pivotal?
One intriguing subplot is the upcoming January transfer window. Logic suggests City could eye Martin Zubimendi to plug their gap in midfield.
Zubimendi, who backed up Rodri in Spain’s Euro 2024 campaign, was, of course, set to move to Anfield before opting against leaving his hometown club.
While Slot insists “we’ve moved on,” that no Merseyside journalist has been briefed categorically that that is the case is perhaps indicative. Is the door still open for us to return for the 25-year-old?
It is not out of the realms of possibility and could give Liverpool a rare opportunity to strengthen their own squad and effectively weaken City’s in one stroke.
In fact, with City rocked by Rodri’s injury, this whole season could prove to be a rare opportunity for Slot’s Reds.
Now, it’s up to Liverpool to stay sharp, keep winning, and be ready to take full advantage.
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